At least three patterns have been u...

At least three patterns have been used to shoot forward the future physician workforce, and each originates different results. No physician workforce predictions can be relied forward until there is more consideration of and agreement onward desired health outcomes and what physicians must do to achieve them.

In the in every one's mouth debate on whether to expand the U primary care physician workforce, three different protoplasts have been used: the supply-demand (extrapolation) pattern the trend (extrapolation) model, and the ne (expert) pattern The results from each are dramatically different, leading to greatly controversy. (1) Researchers at united end of the spectrum forecast sufficiency and thus would focus onward improving the quality and distribution of the workforce at its now passing level, whereas those at the other conclusion forecast shortages by 2020 and advocate expansion. The accompanying figure (1-3) illustrates by what means forecasts differ with the three protoplasts Annual growth rates are 32 21 and 08 percent as drawed with the supply-demand, trend, and ne types respectively.

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The issues of projections differ because the examples are based on different assumptions. The supply-demand archetype assumes medical residency positions can increase in answer to an expected rate of economic putting out The trend model assumes that existing turns policies, and training positions will be maintained, thus expecting and accounting for no events to come changes in market factors. The ne design assumes the number of physicians should match the calculated number required to provide medical services to the what may occur hereafter population. (4) The models also differ in limitations, implications for population health results and resource costs.

The United States ranks near the bottom of lay opened countries in terms of the health of its population. Instead of continuing to debate workforce expansion, physician workforce planning should consider in what manner we can improve health care for everyone in the United States and what workforce would be exigencyed to do so. Only when we agree forward desired health outcomes (e.g., improved health status; reduc infant mortality; lower mortality from cancer, heart disease, and stroke) and the composition of a workforce that could achieve them can realistic projections be determined.

REFERENCES

(1) virid LA, Dodoo MS, Ruddy G Fryer GE Phillips RL McCann JL et al. The physician workforce of the United States: a family medicine perspective. Washington, DC: Robert Graham Center 2004

(2) AMA Masterfile 2000-2004 Analysis from the Robert Graham Center, 2004

(3) U Census Bureau. Statistical abstract of the United States, 1995-2005

(4) Martin JC Avant RF Bowman MA, Bucholtz JR Dickinson JR Evans KL et al. The coming of family medicine. Ann Fam M 2004;2(suppl 1):S3-32

NOTE: the information and opinions contained in research from the Graham Center do not necessarily contemplate the views or the policy of the AAFP.

Adapted from the Graham Center one-Pager #39 Dodoo M flourishing LA, Phillips RL, Fryer GE McCann JL Klein L et al. exces shortage, or sufficient physician workforce: in what manner could we know? november 2005 Available online at http://www.graham-center. org/onepager39.xml. From the Robert Graham Center: Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care, 1350 Connecticut Ave., NW Suite 201 Washington, DC 20036 (telephone: 202-331-3360; fax: 202-331-3374; e-mail: policy@aafp.org).

COPYRIGHT 2005 American Academy of Family Physicians

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